How can we best understand the current cultural landscape and what it means for the future?
The Rick Beato interview of Ted Gioia, two thought leaders in the music and cultural sphere, revealed several key insights on the cyclical nature of cultural trends, the decline of traditional media, and the burgeoning rise of microculture.
The Cyclical Nature of Cultural Trends
Ted Gioia’s exploration of cultural trends highlights a fundamental aspect of human society: its cyclical nature. Drawing from his book, “The Birth and Death of the Cool,” Gioia outlines how societal values and interests, particularly in music, follow long-term cycles. He identifies the rise and fall of the concept of “coolness,” which dominated American culture from the post-World War II era through the late 20th century.
In the early 20th century, the concept of being “cool” did not hold significant cultural weight. The Great Depression and World War II saw society focused more on survival and recovery than on aesthetic values or personal branding.
The post-war era marked the birth of the “cool” persona, epitomized by figures like Miles Davis, Marlon Brando, and Jack Kerouac. Coolness became a sought-after trait, associated with rebellion, individuality, and a certain disdain for mainstream conformity.
“The idea behind the book I was going to write was a history of coolness. I had this assumption that people always wanted to be cool and always would want to be cool—this was like a timeless quantity. But what I discovered during my research is that this isn’t the case.
These cycles last 50, 60, 70 years. There was a cycle in which people wanted to be cool, which they didn’t during the Great Depression or World War II. After the war, with Miles Davis, the birth of the cool, the beatniks, Jack Kerouac, Lenny Bruce, and edgy comedians like Marlon Brando, coolness became important.
Coolness had a 50-60 year run and then started to die. The first warning sign was when the word ‘cool’ stopped being applied to people like Marlon Brando or Miles Davis and was applied to merchandise. Now it was the running shoe or a device that was cool—it became a marketing program. Coolness was no longer a personal quality; it was used to market a product. Eventually, the whole concept of coolness in society disappeared.”
Gioia marks a pivotal shift when the term “cool” started to be applied to consumer goods rather than individuals, signaling a commodification of what was once a personal quality. By the early 2000s, the cultural emphasis on coolness had diminished, giving way to a new cycle characterized by different values and expressions.
The Simplification of Music
An essential part of this cultural shift is evident in the evolution of music. Gioia observes that over recent decades, music has become increasingly simplified. Where once the charts were dominated by complex, innovative compositions, today’s popular music often relies on basic, repetitive structures. The four-chord song has become emblematic of this trend, signaling a broader cultural move towards simplicity and immediacy.
This won’t last. Remember that, according to Gioia, cultural trends are inherently cyclical. The current era of musical simplicity will eventually give way to a renaissance of complexity and innovation. Historical patterns support this view: periods of artistic stagnation are often followed by bursts of creativity and experimentation.
Just as the early 1960s saw a rise in more complex and experimental music following a period of simpler rock and roll, Gioia anticipates a similar resurgence in the coming years.
A recent study looked at six decades (1958–2016) of popular music in the United States, which included 14,661 songs. They found that in years when more new and different songs were made, the lyrics of popular songs were simpler. Simpler songs also tended to be more successful on the charts, especially in years with more new songs.
Cycles of Music and Movies, and Soros’ Theory of Reflexivity
Gioia says:
“There was a period back in the early ’50s when music was really simple. But then, with the arrival of The Beatles and other bands, it started getting more complex again. This cycle is fascinating, and I came across an idea in George Soros’s book, The Alchemy of Finance.
Soros, who made a fortune trading currencies, has a theory called reflexivity. He says trends continue longer than is sensible and only reverse when they reach a ridiculous extreme. For example, songs can’t get any simpler, but they will eventually reverse because people get tired of them.
Does this happen in culture, too?
Look at movies. Disney kept pushing out Star Wars and Marvel movies, thinking they’d always be successful. It worked for a while, but eventually, it got ridiculous, and the box office numbers dropped. This decline is evident when you compare box office receipts from before the pandemic to now; they’re unlikely to reach those high numbers again.
This pattern will likely happen in music too. So, while people often think I’m pessimistic, I’m actually optimistic. I believe once we hit the extreme end of a cycle, it will reverse.
Movies and music seem to follow similar cycles. In the ’60s, Hollywood relied heavily on westerns and musicals. They pushed these genres so much that even Clint Eastwood stopped making westerns, and musicals became almost non-existent after The Sound of Music. When these formulas stopped working, Hollywood was forced to take risks, leading to edgier and grittier films like The Godfather, Chinatown, and Taxi Driver. These risk-taking films are now considered some of the best movies of all time.
I believe we’re at a similar point now, where the industry will have to innovate and take risks once again.”
The Decline of Traditional Media
Parallel to the cyclical nature of cultural trends is the decline of traditional media. The advent of digital technology and the internet has disrupted old media institutions. Newspapers, magazines, and traditional broadcast media have experienced significant layoffs and declining revenues.
Traditional entities, once the gatekeepers of culture, struggle to adapt. The economic pressures and rapid technological changes have led to a crisis in which traditional media outlets can no longer sustain their old business models.
This decline has created a vacuum that is increasingly filled by independent creators and alternative platforms. It is leading to the rise of microculture.
The Rise of Microculture
The rise of microculture represents a dynamic and vibrant shift in the cultural landscape. Microculture refers to the proliferation of small, independent creators who leverage digital platforms to reach niche audiences. Platforms like Substack for writers and YouTube for video creators empower individuals to bypass traditional gatekeepers and connect directly with their audience.
Microculture allows for greater creative freedom and risk-taking in which independent creators are not bound by the same commercial pressures and bureaucratic constraints that stifle innovation in larger institutions. This environment can foster a more authentic and diverse cultural output, resonating deeply with audiences who seek genuine, relatable content.
See also: Hustle culture: Is this the end of rise-and-grind?
The Convergence of Trends and Microculture
For Gioia, the convergence of the cyclical nature of cultural trends and the rise of microculture offers a hopeful vision for the future. As traditional media continues to decline, the space opens up for new voices and innovative expressions. The current cycle of cultural simplification, particularly in music, is likely to reverse as audiences grow weary of homogenized content and crave more complex and original works.
Microculture, with its inherent flexibility and responsiveness to audience preferences, is well-positioned to lead this cultural revival. Independent creators can experiment with new ideas and formats, taking risks that large corporations might avoid. This agility enables microculture to adapt quickly to changing tastes and trends, fostering a more vibrant and dynamic cultural ecosystem.
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